PERSPECTIVES IN BRAZIL
ECONOMY
- Slowdown in economic growth due to:
- the deterioration of the external scenario, with less growth, strong dollar, lower liquidity and lower commodity prices;
- the lagged effect of the monetary tightening carried out by the Central Bank of Brazil; and
- the need to put a brake on the increase in primary public spending, which this year should be around R$ 200 billion above the forecast by the original spending ceiling rule;
- With these factors being faced, the expectation is that the Central Bank should start reducing the SELIC sometime in the first half of next year.
- Tax exemptions adopted to reduce fuel prices will need to be reviewed, which should cause fuel prices to rise.
INDUSTRIES
- One of the great challenges in 2023 will be to reverse the deindustrialization movement in attention to social and environmental concerns;
- The reversal of the deindustrialization movement should strengthen the export character of Brazilian industry and balance imports of capital goods and inputs.
PERSPECTIVES IN THE WORLD
FOREIGN TRADE
- Import restrictions: WTO Members still maintain export restrictions on food, feed, fertilizers and essential products to combat COVID-19;
- Socio-environmental responsibility: Greater concern with measures in favor of the environment, including in imported products;
- Trade Facilitation: The global crisis created by the COVID-19 pandemic, the blockade of the Suez Canal and the war in Ukraine negatively affected several supply chains. There is a need for new measures aimed at reducing bureaucracy in imports and exports in various sectors;
- Free trade agreements: The signing of the Mutual Recognition Agreement (ARM) with the US CPBP, making official the partnership between its Authorized Economic Operator Programs (AEO), must be followed by agreements with other countries and blocs;
- WTO: The need to reform the WTO has taken a backseat due to the pandemic. This issue should be resumed in 2023.
